Stanley Cup Playoffs Round One Preview: By The Numbers

Game one of the Canucks first round playoff series versus the Los Angeles Kings is starting in just a couple hours. To get you ready, I’ve compiled a plethora of numbers from these two teams in order to draw some comparisons. Ultimately, the numbers suggest that this will be a tougher series than the first-versus-eighth matchup would suggest.

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Henrik Sedin really is Captain Hook

Ever since Henrik Sedin was named Captain of the Vancouver Canucks, we’ve referred to him as Captain Hook. This isn’t because Henrik is a one-handed pirate who fights children and has a fear of crocodiles, but because he has a strong penchant for taking hooking penalties.

Turns out he has a stronger penchant for hooking penalties than even I thought. Henrik currently leads the entire NHL in hooking minors with 11.

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What happened to the old Mason Raymond?

Mason Raymond has been a target for criticism for the vast majority of the season and it’s easy to understand why. The speedy winger has just 8 goals and 8 assists in 46 games and has been noticeably prone to losing his edge and falling to the ice. He’s survived a broken back, but it’s unknown if he’ll survive the displeasure of Vancouver hockey fans.
His recent promotion to the first line with the Sedins made sense on closer inspection, but that didn’t stop Canucks fans from freaking right out and calling for Vigneault’s head. Fortunately, the Canucks organization installed a statue of Roger Neilson in front of Rogers Arena and not a guillotine, or things could have gotten ugly.

I’ve been quick to defend Mason Raymond this season, pointing out that his deficiencies frequently mask his proficiencies. After all, Raymond was often criticized last season for his lack of production, but his underlying numbers were still strong, indicating that he was still a useful player whose efforts were under-appreciated. It was easy enough for me to assume that the same was the case this year, that Raymond’s lack of offensive production was making him an easy, and undeserved, target of criticism.

I was wrong.

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How do the Canucks coaches record scoring chances?

We have known for some time that the Canucks management and coaching staff pay attention to advanced statistics, though it’s generally thought that they have their own internal analysis rather than simply using what is publicly available through Vic Ferrari’s timeonice.com and Gabriel Desjardins’ behindthenet.ca.

While Mike Gillis and the rest of his team tend to keep mum on specifics, Gillis talked about the analytical revolution in baseball when he was first hired by the Canucks and about being an unconventional manager, and there have been numerous other hints that indicate that the management team uses some form of advanced statistics. Of course, Gillis has also said that applying sabermetrics to hockey just doesn’t work. How much of that is bluster and how much is true remains to be seen.

On Monday morning, however, we did get a tiny glimpse at one of the numbers that Alain Vigneault uses to judge his players. He was asked a question about Chris Higgins and he briefly talked about scoring chances. While we’ve heard Vigneault mention scoring chances before, he actually got specific in regards to Higgins.

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Did Cody Hodgson take Manny Malhotra’s job? Mark Spector thinks so; Jonathan Willis does not

If you’ve been following this blog for awhile, you’ve likely figured out by now that Daniel is far more of an advanced stats guy than I am. That said, while I may not be a massive fan of tables and math, I’m still of the mind that it’s absolutely vital to pay attention to a few of the underlying numbers, especially in regards to the Canucks. Otherwise, you run the risk of coming to some spotty conclusions.

If you’re not following Alain Vigneault’s deployment strategies, for instance, you’re simply not getting the full picture. No NHL head coach pays more attention to zone starts, and it informs every aspect of his players’ statistical production. In Manny Malhotra’s case especially, if you understand his role, you’ll discover that his scoring and plus/minus stats border on completely irrelevant.

If you were only looking at Malhotra’s basic numbers, it would be reasonable to make the conclusion that Sportnet’s Mark Spector made on Friday, when he wrote the following:

“You have to believe GM Mike Gillis would move Manny Malhotra, whose job has been claimed by Cody Hodgson. But with 13 points and a minus-7 this season, we are sad to come to the accepted conclusion that Malhotra’s game has simply not returned in whole after the serious eye injury he suffered last season.”

While there are elements of this paragraph with which I agree (I’ll get to that), there are also elements that show a misunderstanding of how Hodgson and Malhotra are deployed.

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Manny Malhotra takes the shortest shifts in the NHL

Few seem to understand the value that Manny Malhotra brings to the Canucks. The Vancouver Sun’s own Fan Attic, for instance, recently argued that Malhotra is paid too much for his role as a fourth-line centre, noting his lack of point production, his minus-6 plus/minus, and his lack of hits.

Unfortunately, this fails to really account for what Malhotra contributes to the Canucks. He is certainly being paid more than the average fourth-line centre, but this is because he isn’t an average fourth-line centre. The way that he is used on the ice is essentially unprecedented in the NHL and is a key reason the Canucks are successful as a team.

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Big Numbers: On penalties, powerplays, and pitiful second periods

Herein you will find a compendium of interesting stats. Take from them what you will. Or, if you’re feeling particularly sluggish this Monday morning, take from them what I have taken from them. Whatever.

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Canucks’ best shot blocker is heading to the press box

The Canucks announced some great news today: Aaron Rome will be back in the lineup against the St. Louis Blues after missing 12 games with a broken thumb. With Sami Salo still out with a concussion, Rome’s return alleviates some of the concerns regarding the Canucks defensive depth.

Here’s the odd thing: he won’t be replacing Alex Sulzer, who would seem to be the obvious choice. Instead, he’s replacing Keith Ballard.

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One of the biggest questions heading into this season for the Canucks was how they were going to replace the scoring of Christian Ehrhoff. The German blueliner had a career-high 50 points in 2010-11, leading all Canucks defencemen in scoring by a margin of 17 points.

Many worried that Ehrhoff’s absence would be gravely missed, particularly since the Canucks didn’t acquire anyone to replace him. Back in September, we noted that while the Canucks would miss his potent offensive talents, they would be able to replace his production from within, and they wouldn’t miss his defensive lapses. Henrik suggested they wouldn’t miss Ehrhoff at all, saying “I don’t think we lost anything,” which seemed a bit strong at the time.

Turns out, he might have been right.

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Chris Higgins scores goals, has abs

If I told you before the season started that, 20 games into the season, Chris Higgins would be tied with a Sedin for the team-lead in goals, you would assume I was joking. If I told you the Sedin was Henrik, you would know I was joking.

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While it is unrealistic to expect the Canucks’ to repeat the franchise-best season they had last year, fans still expected a better start than this. The Canucks are 9-9-1 through 19 games, capped off by a frustrating loss to the Blackhawks on Wednesday. There are many who see an echo to last year’s game 19, a 7-1 thrashing at the hand of the ‘Hawks that came to be known as the Voldemort game. Here’s the thing: at that time, the Canucks had a record of 10-6-3. The Canucks have gotten off to a worse start than last year, and last year caused endless hand wringing.

The issue thus far for the Canucks is neatly demonstrated by Wednesday’s game in conjunction with their previous meeting with the Blackhawks. Back on November 6th, the Canucks systematically took apart the Blackhawks in a 6-2 victory. 5 of their 6 goals in that game were scored on the powerplay. On Wednesday, the Canucks didn’t receive any powerplays and only scored one goal. The common factor: in both games, the Canucks only managed one goal at even-strength.

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The Soft Sedin Myth

Popular wisdom is that the easiest way to shut down the Sedins is to play a tough, physical game. The theory goes that the Sedins wilt under physical pressure, with the Stanley Cup Final submitted as proof. The takeaway from that series for a lot of people is that the Sedins are too soft and that all that is required to shut them down is to hit them. Is this view true? How do the Sedins perform in more physical games? Are the Sedins soft?

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The Canucks had 296 powerplay opportunities last season, good for 11th in the NHL. With their league-leading powerplay percentage of 24.3%, the Canucks scored a league-leading 72 goals with the man advantage. This season, the Canucks are once again leading the league in powerplay goals with 13, but are converting at a percentage of 22.4% 6th in the NHL. But they are second in the NHL in powerplay opportunities, just one behind the Columbus Blue Jackets.

It’s in the Canucks best interests to continue to draw as many penalties as possible. While it’s unlikely that the Canucks will actually draw near-400 powerplay opportunities – Carolina led the league with 346 powerplay opportunities last season – the more powerplay opportunities that the Canucks can draw with their superb powerplay, the better. Thus far, despite only scoring 1 powerplay point, Cody Hodgson has played a large role in the Canucks’ powerplay success.

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Just in case the Young Stars Tournament has not been over-analysed enough, PITB presents an overabundance of statistics, including the top scorers, PIM leaders, goaltending stats, and complete stats from each team. Please keep in mind that this data is the very definition of small sample size and judge accordingly.

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Like “Henry the 8th”, it’s second verse, same as the first. Once again we find ourselves nearing the end of the NHL offseason with no contract for Kyle Wellwood in sight. This season it is even more inexplicable than last season. Long time Bulies will remember my impassioned defense of Kyle Wellwood’s defensive abilities after the 2009-10 season, pointing out that he led the entire NHL in the admittedly oddball statistic of Ratio of Goals Against to Total Time on Ice. To put it simply: when Kyle Wellwood was on the ice in that season, the opposition didn’t score. At least, not very often.

Instead of other NHL teams noticing his surprising defensive responsibility, the epic saga of Wellwood’s World happened, as Welly signed in the KHL, saw the coach who had him signed fired and replaced, rode the bench, was released from his KHL contract, had a baby, signed a contract with the St. Louis Blues, was picked up off re-entry waivers by the San Jose Sharks, and made it to the Western Conference Final, where he was eliminated by his former team, the Vancouver Canucks. It was a crazy, crazy year for the easy-going Wellwood, and likely one he doesn’t want to repeat.

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The Sharks post-season story bears a strong similarity to that of the Canucks, simply reversed. While the Canucks went up 3-0 in the first round, only to have their opposition with 3-straight and push them to 7 games, the Sharks did the same in the second round. Against the Predators, the Canucks won the first, third, fourth, and sixth games of the series. Against the Kings, the Sharks had the exact same pattern of wins and losses. It’s uncanny.

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It takes 12 wins to make it to the Stanley Cup Finals. Bearing this in mind, after exactly 12 games, why aren’t the Canucks there yet? Why, I ask you, are they still toiling away in the second round, a round they could have completed as many as four games ago? The answer is simple: because Daniel and Henrik Sedin are a combined minus-14.

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It’s fair to say that Daniel and Henrik Sedin have struggled so far in these playoffs. It’s fair to say that the Canucks need more from their two Art Ross winners. It’s fair to say that the Canucks will need the Sedins to be better if they have any chance of hoisting Lord Stanley’s Cup.

It’s not fair to combine their plus/minus ratings as evidence for these fair claims.

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Every now and then we at PITB like to take a step back and just post some statistics. This is one of those times. Read them quickly before they’re outdated.

* Maxim Lapierre is the current playoff leader in hits with a Wellwood-approved and Adams-certified 42. His closest competitor who is actually still competing in the playoffs is Shane O’Brien with 38, but immediately behind him are Kevin Bieksa, Alex Edler, and Ryan Kesler with 37, 36, and 35 hits respectively. That means 4 of the top 6 hitters this postseason are Canucks. It should come as no surprise, then, that the Canucks are leading the playoffs in total hits with a whopping 385 hits in 11 games. That’s 95 more than the Tampa Bay Lightning, who are second in that statistic. They have more hits than Martin Q. Blank. They have so many hits they’re thinking of buying The Hit Factory and re-opening it. For a month after playing the Canucks, their opponent’s favorite song is “It’s a Hit” by We Are Scientists. It’s especially impressive because the Canucks were 20th in the league in hits during the regular season. They have stepped it up in a big way for the playoffs.

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The reactions to the Vancouver Canucks round one victory over the Chicago Blackhawks were many and varied. There were two particular reactions, however, that were such polar opposites that they bear investigating. For every person who cried out “The Canucks have defeated the Stanley Cup Champions!” there was an equally loud voice saying “The Canucks barely managed to beat the 8th seed!” The Blackhawks were simultaneously hailed as one of the best teams in the NHL and derided as a weak team that backed their way into the playoffs on the last day of the regular season.

So which is it? Who are the real Blackhawks? Were the 2010-11 Blackhawks a terrible team with remnants of past greatness still clinging to them or were they a great team that for some reason had a terrible regular season? Should the Canucks feel proud for defeating the Blackhawks or should they feel shame at their narrow escape?

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Poor Keith Ballard. Mike Gillis made a big splash in acquiring Ballard at the NHL Entry Draft last summer, paying the steep price of a first round draft pick, Calder candidate Michael Grabner, and Steve Bernier. He and Dan Hamhuis were meant to shore up the defense and allow for the trade of the ill-favored Kevin Bieksa. Ballard was meant to play a big role in the revamped top-four. Instead, Salo got injured, Bieksa stuck around, and Ballard found himself on the third-pairing averaging 16 minutes per game.

Poor Keith Ballard. His first chance to play in the NHL Playoffs and his skates barely touch the ice, averaging 12-and-a-half minutes per game and finding himself in the pressbox for games 5 and 6 in favor of journeymen Aaron Rome and Andrew Alberts. It seemed that the only reason he found himself back on the ice for game 7 was yet another mysterious Sami Salo injury.

Poor Keith Ballard. The Canucks’ playoff record this season with Keith Ballard in the lineup is 4-1. Without Ballard in the lineup: 0-2. And yet, he can’t seem to find his way into Alain Vigneault’s good books.

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With the news that Kevin Bieksa has started practicing with the team again, the next step will be his return to the Canucks lineup, maybe even as early as tomorrow’s game against Detroit. This means that one of the Canucks’ current defensemen will be hitting the pressbox, unless Sami Salo breaks again. It’s almost a [...]

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Manny Malhotra is an Enabler

It wasn’t that long ago that Manny Malhotra was receiving premature buzz for the Selke Award. Now, mired in a 16-game pointless drought, questions are being raised about his role as the third-line center, with some suggesting that Hodgson might supplant him before the season is done. I heard from some quarters that Hodgson’s line [...]

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I had intended to write this article prior to hearing that Edler was out one game and then indefinitely. Now, it almost seems in poor taste to write it, as the consensus seems to be wailing and gnashing of teeth now that Edler is gone for the foreseeable future. However, I noticed that Puck Daddy [...]

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Ask it to Bulis is a regular feature wherein casual readers and hardcore Bulies alike can put their questions to two guys no more qualified to answer than they are. Harrison and Daniel preside: Greatest Canucks’ mustache: Babych or Snepsts? – @staticotakuH: Tough first question. I’m gonna go with Snepsts, and for totally subjective reasons. [...]

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