Last season, Cory Schneider wasn’t just good — he was phenomenal. He finished second in the NHL in save percentage, third in goals against average, and second in winning percentage. Combine that with his previous season, when he finished third in save percentage, fourth in goals against average, and first in winning percentage, along with his solid performance coming into a difficult situation in last year’s playoffs, and it becomes pretty easy to see why everyone thought he was ready to take over the number one job from Roberto Luongo.
So far this season, Schneider has certainly proven that he’s ready to be a starting goaltender, but he’s fallen short of proving that he’s one of the best goaltenders in the league. As we reach the halfway point of the season, it’s clear that Luongo has outplayed Schneider, raising the question of who will get the bulk of the starts over the second half.
Let me start by saying that I am by no means advocating trading Schneider. We’ll leave that for other, less rational blogs. He still looks like he will be an elite goaltender at the NHL level and he has youth and a less-onerous contract on his side in a direct comparison with Luongo. For this season, however, Luongo is still on the Canucks roster and it looks like he won’t be traded until the summer.
With that in mind, the Canucks need to be pragmatic about which goaltender they use, particularly at this point in the season, when they’ve gone 3-5-4 in their last 12 games and losing four straight. It’s certainly not the Canucks’ only problem or even their most significant one, but it’s a piece of the puzzle.
The Canucks haven’t been great defensively in front of either goaltender. Oddly enough, the Canucks are allowing fewer shots-per-game than last season, but the number of breakdowns, odd-man rushes, and high-quality scoring chances given up by the normally well-structured defence has been startling. Because of this, it’s been fairly easy to give the goaltenders a pass when it comes to the team’s struggles.
And yet, at even-strength, Luongo’s save percentage is .932 and Schneider’s is .917. As a result, Schneider has given up 11 more goals at even-strength than Luongo, while playing in just 3 more games. If the fault lay entirely with the skaters in front of Luongo and Schneider, then why are their respective performances at even-strength so completely different?
The only reason the two have similar overall save percentages is Schneider’s .877 save percentage while shorthanded, whereas Luongo’s is .826. So why pay more attention to even-strength save percentage? Simply put, a goaltender’s penalty killing save percentage is not repeatable or sustainable over time. Penalty killing save percentage isn’t a reliable indicator of how a goaltender will perform in the future.
Even-strength save percentage, on the other hand, is reliable. This season, Luongo’s even-strength save percentage is right in line with how he’s performed in the past. His even-strength save percentage over the last six seasons has hovered around .930, placing him among the league’s elite year-after-year.
His penalty-killing save percentage, however, has jumped all over the place, from .906 in 2006-07 down to .858 in 2008-09, back up to .897 in 2010-11. It has never, however, been as low as it is this season. That can be interpreted in a number of different ways, but it seems clear to me that it can’t last. If his save percentage improves on the penalty kill and he continues his consistent performance at even-strength, Luongo will once again be among the league’s best in save percentage by the end of the season.
Part of the reason I thought Schneider was ready to take over Luongo’s job was how he matched Luongo’s performance at even-strength over the last two seasons. Schneider’s even-strength save percentage was .933 in 2010-11, just below Luongo, and .931 in 2011-12, just above Luongo. Those are elite-level numbers, but this season, as his starts have increased, his even-strength save percentage has dropped to .917, placing him in the bottom half of the league.
Last season, Schneider’s overall save percentage was boosted by his performance on the penalty kill, where he put up an unreal .959 save percentage, easily the best in the league. The year prior, he managed a .911 save percentage on the penalty kill, good for fourth in the NHL among goaltenders who faced at least 100 shots short-handed.
Schneider’s penalty kill save percentage made him a clear outlier among NHL goaltenders. When Left Wing Lock looked at career performance of active goaltenders on the penalty kill, Schneider’s career .925 stood out:
So, if you’re Vancouver management or a fantasy hockey manager who owns Cory Schneider, there are two ways to interpret the data:
- There is a measurable and distinguishable talent-level for goalies in non-EV situations AND Cory Schneider is the best goalie in the league in these situations.
- Cory Schneider has benefitted from small sample sizes and his PKSV% (and overall SV%) are headed downward.
Schneider’s current save percentage on the penalty kill is right around league average. The correct interpretation seems clear. At this point, his performance at even-strength becomes an issue.
Schneider has given up more than 2 goals in seven of his fourteen starts. Luongo has given up more than 2 goals in three of his ten starts. All three of those came in his last four starts, which is likely why Schneider was given a chance to take the reins recently, starting five of the Canucks’ last six games. In that time, the Canucks as a whole have not performed well, but Schneider has been part of the problem.
He has gone 1-2-2 in his last five starts while posting a save percentage of .898. Still, in three of those games, Schneider performed well, allowing just 2 goals and earning at least a point. With a powerplay that can actually convert, the Canucks would likely have a better record, but an .898 save percentage is simply not good enough.
One argument that has been made in Schneider’s defence is that he isn’t performing well because he isn’t being given the chance to get into a rhythm. It doesn’t make a whole lot of sense, however. Schneider has had excellent back-to-back seasons while playing as Luongo’s backup, starting just 22 and 28 games. If he didn’t need to establish a rhythm with consecutive starts in the past, why is that a requirement now?
Roberto Luongo will be starting the Canucks’ game on Tuesday against the Columbus Blue Jackets, which, surprisingly, will be a good test. The Blue Jackets are on a hot streak, winning five straight and picking up points in seven straight, meaning a solid performance from Luongo could lead to several more starts.
As for Schneider, I fully believe he can turn things around this season, but I believe that Luongo gives the Canucks their best chance to win now and now is when the Canucks need to start winning again.
You might also like:
18 comments
Search
Recent Comments
- kenahora
on I Watched This Playoff Game: Canucks at San Jose Sharks, May 7, 2013 - mac 'n cheese
on I Watched This Playoff Game: Canucks at San Jose Sharks, May 7, 2013 - Dean
on Pass it to Bulis presents a musical mockumentary: ‘Poonerman’ [VIDEO] - steveB
on Six things the Canucks need to do better in Game 4 - Blueliner
on Will Alain Vigneault lose his job if the Canucks lose again? (Yeah, probably)
About canada.com | Privacy Statement | Terms | Copyright & Permissions
© 2008 - 2011 Postmedia Network Inc. All rights reserved.
Unauthorized distribution, transmission or republication strictly prohibited.
Nick
March 12, 2013My take is that Schneider should continue to get most of the starts.
Unless, of course, they’re now giving up on him.
He’s let in a few softies, but he hasn’t been as bad as the media are trying to spin it.
Last season, the super goalies were Quick in LA, and Halak and Elliot in St Louis … and both Quick and Schneider were outstanding down the stretch and in the playoffs.
Schneider is having a better year than those guys.
But no one with any sense is clamouring for Quick to be replaced by Bernier in LA.
No matter what happens, my take is that AV should not park a goalie for 4 or 5 games in a row, like he’s done with Roberto this month and Schneider in January.
Play both more regularly, but give the guy they want to keep in the long run at least 60% of the starts.
RG
March 12, 2013You want AV to bench the hot hand just to keep both goalies in the rotation? Does that make sense? Luongo was lights out earlier this season, and AV’s merit-based system rightfully, did not earn Lu a seat on the bench.
J21 (@Jyrki21)
March 12, 2013The Canucks need the points, so I say do whatever you have to do to win games. Plus you want to limit workload in a compressed schedule. That said, I would be wary about overcompensating too much here (i.e. changing who the starter is depending on short-term performance), because by the same logic Schneider should have replaced Luongo as the starter early in the season last year, but obviously that would have caused a pretty substantial kerfuffle.
I do think the situation is weighing on Schneider a bit (and if Gillis declared tomorrow that he was shopping Schneider, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a reversal of fortune in the goalies’ performances) and that is completely fair: no one does their job better when everyone is constantly second-guessing them and always has one finger on the big red button. He was almost certainly told before signing his contract that the team was moving forward with him, and he might feel a little shafted.
You also don’t want to mess up the situation long-term — if Luongo feels like he already has a foot out the door (and his wife is already looking forward to his return to the east coast, etc.) but then you turn that on its head… like Zack Morris trying to date both Kelly and Jessie (and as a result ending up with neither) you potentially end up with two disgruntled goaltenders and no easy trade to make.
And that’s the other thing. For all it’s only a minority of fans refusing to acknowledge that the Canucks won’t get much in a Luongo trade, they have to understand that the Canucks would not get much back in a Schneider trade either.
It has little to do with their performance, ironically. It has everything to do with the fact that there are 30 NHL starting positions and about 50 starter-worthy goalies in the world. A good’s price is set by both supply and demand, and it doesn’t matter how “elite” you are if there’s no market for your services. (Try selling Ferraris in Burkina Faso — it’s an “elite” car, so you must make back a fortune, right?) Even if either goalie would be an upgrade on Team X’s goaltending, the transaction costs involved to gain two points in save percentage are simply not worth it in most cases. It is noteworthy that Jonathan Bernier hasn’t been moved yet, either.
The moral of the story is right up Billy Beane’s alley: drafting goaltenders with high draft picks is a bad idea. There is a glut on the market and it’s better to let someone else do the 4-7 years of development while you groom a nice forward or defenseman you could always trade later.
real Cam Charron
March 12, 2013Not drafting goalies high is a Paul DePodesta thing, not a Billy Beane thing.
The draft sequence in Moneyball is one of my favourite chapters in a sports book, but it mostly involves DePodesta trying to convince Beane to draft hitters instead of pitchers.
You’re right though. Goalies come from anyway, and they peak later. So do defencemen. Forwards, though, typically peak between the ages of 21 and 25, while they’re still in their RFA years. You can’t get scoring on the free agent market. You can get scoring:
A – By drafting young forwards
B – By trading for young forwards
Goaltending is different. Brian Elliott and Mike Smith could have won the Vezina Trophy last season, and both were found in a dustbin. Henrik Lundqvist and Pekka Rinne were late-round selections. Craig Anderson had to re-enter the draft.
Basically don’t draft goalies. In the off-chance that one becomes pretty good at a young age and has tradeable value and is in an RFA contract year, you should probably trade him. Also, this is easier in hindsight.
J21 (@Jyrki21)
March 12, 2013Getting your endorsement on this point makes me ‘squee’ like a schoolgirl… which I might actually be because The Internet.
Warpstone
March 12, 2013Every goal eventually has a “book” written on him by scouts and coaches. The really good ones manage to perform well despite the other team’s knowledge of their tendencies.
Is it possible that Schneider is now going through this process as teams prepare for him now instead of Luongo?
New Van FAn
March 12, 2013The goaltending situation is by far the most difficult thing about being a Canucks fan. It makes my head hurt every time. But I agree with you on this one. Luongo is far from old news – he’s been playing great this year, and should get a chance to help the Canucks turn it around.
not Cam Charron
March 12, 2013see the canucks used to do real well because they had an elite powerplay to go along with elite goaltending. historically, those things covered up how bad they were at defence
now they have no elite powerplay, no elite goaltending, no jobs, no hope and no cash. they also have an elite goaltender SITTING ON THE BENCH!!!111!!111!
Colby
March 12, 2013Luongo is an elite goaltender entering the goaltender prime age range.. Look at Marty, it stands to reason that Luongo can use what hes learned over the years and get even better.
chinook
March 12, 2013Very good analysis Daniel but suspiciously devoid of humour – was this ghost-written? And excellent comments back from Nick and J21. I agree with your ‘bottom-line’ that in the The Great Goalie Debate of Schneider vs Luongo Canucks should keep Schneider because of his age and contract.
But on one point you defeat your own argument. If “Cory Schneider has benefitted from small sample sizes and his PKSV% (and overall SV%) are headed downward”, (the interpretation you favour) then Schneider should be played MORE so that management can find out.
Goalie performance used to consistent over a month, a season, a career. (I base this on empirical knowledge, not any painfully tedious stats analysis) Patrick Roy, Terry Sawchuk, Kelly Hrudey might have a stinker game now and then, but were predictable over longer periods. To me, its curious to downright bizarre that there is great fluctuation season to season. In Chicago, Emery and Crawford are great this year but were terrible the past two years (Chicago total goals against was similar to Edmonton); in St Louis, Brian Elliott (after years of mediocrity) and Halak were lights out last year, but this season they’re hopeless. Why? – same team, same coach. There are other examples (Ryan Miller, Bryzgalov, Mike Smith) that can be rationalized (if not explained) by coaching change and defensive vs offensive systems. This is a long way of saying that perhaps Schneider’s somewhat poorer play this year is one of those mysteries of the universe created to frustrate bloggers and fans.
chinook
March 12, 2013oops, meant to write: NOW “there is great fluctuation in goalie performance …..
Why do I never remember to proof-read?)
Rob
March 12, 2013I’ve always been a supporter of Luongo, and I have said along that the Canucks should stick with one of the most consistent goalies of our generation and traded Schnieder last year while his value was at his highest and maximized their return. Nobody can say for certain what this ‘controversy’ is doing inside the Canucks locker room right now, but I can almost guarantee that if this goes on long enough will start affecting the team negatively. Whichever way MG decides to go just make a trade and get it done so the team and media can put this behind them and move forward. I’m no expert but its clear that the constant blender of defensemen, rotating goalies, and constant line-juggling of the forwards is causing a disruption to the team. Move a goalie, and bring in some help up front (a big 3rd line defensively-responsible center with some playmaking ability and some speed) or whatever parts need to be brought in to lock down 4 defined starting lines and make the necessary changes to the blue line to allow defense pairings and forward lines to find some chemistry and familiarity and allow one goaltender 80% of the workload so the forwards and d-men can play effectively and confidently in front of him most games. It seems that every area of the Canucks roster has ‘what-ifs” and uncertainties and that has to play a part in the inconsistencies we have seen from them this year.
Nee
March 12, 2013Amen. With the struggles we’re having right now, we can’t afford to go with a certain guy just becuase he’s the #1 goalie.
Whoever gives us the best chance to win on a given night should get the start.
BakerGeorgeT
March 12, 2013real Cam Charron has it right here. Goaltending is overrated in a sense: it is easier to pluck a goalie from an obscure wasteland in Scandinavian than it is to find an elite goal scorer in your own backyard. And goalies can be up and own from season to season Re: Jose Theodore, Craig Anderson, and Nicklas Backstrom for starters.
Nick
March 12, 2013Going with the hot hand in net makes sense, but it can be tough both goalies are doing about the same. And this season is unusual, to say the least. Short season; playoffs only 24 games away; and the guy that gets parked on the pine for the rest of the games is going to be unhappy to point of wanting out, and probably rusty if needed.
Particularly for the latter reason, going with the hot hand rather than sharing games is a gamble.
Luongo, historically, gets better the more games he plays. So if he sits for most of the next 5 weeks and then is needed, we won’t be seeing the real Luongo for several games until he gets some work in. Particularly if Lu is the back-up, I’d be hesitant to cut off his starts completely and give them all to Schneider.
Wagman
March 12, 2013Yes.
Hanky Doodle Dandy
March 13, 2013If I was Gillis (and I like to pretend I am from time to time) I would be worried about trading Luongo and keeping Schneider. If Schneider doesn’t end up being at least a top 10 goalie in the league he’ll have traded away a proven top 5 goalie with a cap hit of only $1.3 million more to keep him. I love Gillis and think he’s done a great job with the organization but that is a boarderline fireable offence.
Don’t start with me on, “Luongo doesn’t win when it matters”, I don’t buy it.
I don’t think Gillis has any idea what he is going to do. He isn’t willing to give up either for nothing (and he shouldn’t) but the Canucks are going to struggle to win with 13% of their cap space eaten up by goalies. There is also the concern that the Luongo bridge has been burned.
Personally, I hope Schneider is the one to go. I think Luongo is a better goalie and gives us a better chance to win with only a modest increase in cap hit.
steveB
March 13, 2013does Schneider even have a Twitter account?
Is it as entertaining as strombone1′s?
With the loss of Kyle Wellwood and Tanner Glass, the cupboard would be pretty bare when we need a chuckle it they lost Luongo too.