“Don’t panic.”
This epigram sits at the beginning of two pop culture landmarks: Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy and the discography of Coldplay. In the former’s case, it’s a perfect introduction to one of the great works of science fiction. In the latter’s case, it’s an imperfect introduction, in that it’s the best song Coldplay has ever done. It’s never ideal to peak with the first song on your first album. Do that, and it’s really only a matter of time before you’re the creepiest, singing, dancing, CGI rabbit in music video history.
But “don’t panic” is more than just a great phrase to put on the cover of a book or a great song by a mediocre band — its also good advice. Arthur C. Clarke once said it’s the best advice.
That is, unless it really is time to panic, and for many Canucks fans, it is. Vancouver has lost 8 of their last 11, including 3 straight, and if that wasn’t enough, their most recent loss came at the hands of the Columbus Blue Jackets, hockey’s punching bag. The way most people see it, losing to the Blue Jackets is like locking your keys in the car. You have no one to blame but yourself.
After the game, Canucks fans started asking if it was time to flip the pool. Perhaps. But perhaps not. Let’s take a moment and weigh the pros and cons of full-blown panic.
PANIC!!! – The Canucks lost to the Columbus Blue Jackets, the worst team in hockey! That means they’re worse than the worst team in hockey, which means — gasp – the Canucks are the worst team in hockey!
Don’t panic. – Beating the Blue Jackets is never a foregone conclusion, because this is the NHL and any team can beat any team on any given night. As an example: the Chicago Blackhawks, who can do no wrong, have struggled against Columbus this season. Whle they’ve won all three meetings, no victory has been by more than one goal, and in their most recent encounter, Chicago needed a late goal and overtime to get it done. Another example: the Detroit Red Wings, who have 28 points, just like Vancouver, have lost to the Blue Jackets twice this season.
PANIC!!! - The Canucks are 11-12. They’ve lost more games than they’ve won!
Don’t panic. - Yet another reason the charity point is stupid: it encourages disingenuous readings of the standings. Yes, the Canucks have technically lost more games than they’ve won, but they’ve also gotten points in 17 of 23. Sure, that’s a slightly optimistic way of looking at it, but it’s also the way the NHL standings look at it. The Canucks remain the third-best team in the conference, not just by virtue of leading the Northwest division, but actual points. Right now, it makes sense to ignore the points they’ve gotten in 6 of their 12 losses and talk about how they’re a sub-.500 hockey team, but keep in mind that a win in their next game means they’re on a three-game point streak.
PANIC!!! - The Canucks have just three wins in their last 10!
Don’t panic. - They’ve also got points in 7 of their last 10 and 3 of their last 4, but yes, 3-3-4 is a bad run for sure. Still, it’s not as bad as it sounds, and it’s not bound to stay this bad much longer. How do we know? The Canucks are fifth in the NHL in Fenwick Close, the advanced statistic that correlates most closely with a team’s future record. Remember how the LA Kings were awful to start the season but people kept insisting they’d turn it around, or the Wild were good last year but people kept saying they were going to fall? Those doomsday refuters were basing their predictions largely on Fenwick Close, at which last year’s Wild were bad and this year’s Kings are good. They were right about both. The Wild dropped off the face of the earth, and the Kings are 7-3-0 in their last 10 and sitting comfortably in fourth. In other words, the Canucks aren’t a bad team. They’re a very good team going through a bad stretch.
PANIC!!! - The powerplay is truly terrible!
Don’t panic. - Actually, yes. Feel free to panic a little over this, because it really is bad. But it’s not an irreparable problem. Certainly, the Canucks are struggling without Ryan Kesler, the club’s best special teams player, adding urgency and unpredictability to the unit, but there are adjustments to be made. Draw up some more plays for Daniel Sedin, who is too good at shooting the puck to have just seven powerplay shots all season. Get Jordan Schroeder off the damn unit in favour of, say, Jason Garrison. Or put David Booth on there. He shoots the puck a lot, and some powerplay time might help him on the path towards shooting the puck in on a semi-regular basis.
PANIC!!! — Keith Ballard keeps getting benched for his mistakes while Alex Edler doesn’t get benched for his! It’s unfair!
Don’t panic. - As an example of why one player gets yanked from the lineup for his bad games and the other doesn’t, let’s look at Thursday night’s game in Columbus. It was an abysmal game for Edler from a “keeping the puck out of the Canucks’ net” standpoint. I think we all agree on this. But he also led all skaters in shots attempted with 9, as well as scoring chances for with 5. He had a bad play in overtime, but he was also the Canucks’ best offensive engine. That’s the case many nights. Taking him out of the game is going to hurt the team as much, if not more, than his occasional mistakes. Keith Ballard, on the other hand, isn’t capable of that kind of impact on a good night, which is why he’s the sixth defenceman, and why even a slight bump down the depth chart means a game night in a suit.
PANIC!!! – Mason Raymond is the team’s second best centre right now!
Don’t panic. - Mason Raymond is the team’s second best centre right now. Not bad for a guy everyone wanted to throw in a pit and then sell to Egyptians a few months back.
PANIC!!! – The Canucks looked tired and uninspired against Columbus, but looked energized and motivated against the Sharks. Are they undiagnosed bipolar?
Don’t panic. - Playing bipolar got Bradley Cooper his first Oscar nomination. This could still work out.
PANIC!!! - Tom Sestito left practice early and may have been seen walking with a limp!
Don’t panic. - DO PANIC!!!
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Canuckfaninsf
March 8, 2013Don’t panic. – Mason Raymond is the team’s second best centre right now. Not bad for a guy everyone wanted to throw in a pit and then sell to Egyptians a few months back.
I wonder if he got a technicolor coat for all the crap he was put through.
Tengeresz
March 10, 2013I too appreciate an old testament reference.
Although the coat of many colours was the cause of being thrown in the pit, not the reward.
Raymond was thrown into the boards, and has come out pretty well this season. Hopefully he’s going to save us from the modern famine of wins and drought of PP goals.
chinook
March 8, 2013Good piece Harrison, a nice summary of all the issues. I really really like reference to The Hitchhiker’s Guide, a true perspective on Life. Remember that The Light is darkest at the end of the tunnel. And oh, one more thing – did I mention about the hitchhiker’s guide?
Zach Morris
March 8, 2013This article is fundamentally flawed: Don’t Panic is not Coldplay’s best song.
What about The Scientist, A Rush of Blood to the Head or even Christmas Lights?
Well done with the bit you threw in about hockey, though.
Harrison Mooney
March 8, 2013All decent songs. But Don’t Panic is still tops. OBJECTIVE FACT.
Zach Morris
March 8, 2013I objectively object!
Ali
March 8, 2013Its “tops” in the literal sense that it is the first song on the Parachutes album, which I believe is part of the point here.
Nee
March 8, 2013No way. The Scientist rules. I’m also partial to Lovers in Japan, but that song has been overplayed to oblivion.
madwag
March 8, 2013The Stones say it best:
“The things that don’t matter easy come and go
And the things that satisfy only come real slow
You gotta know and watch it all in your mind
‘Cause it’s better when you get it if you really try
Sit down shut up don’t dare to cry
Things will get better if you really try
So don’t ya panic don’t ya panic
Give it one more try
Don’t ya panic don’t ya panic
Give it one more try”
nlklw
March 8, 2013It doesn’t matter, all Coldplay is frigging terrible.
Ali
March 8, 2013I will start to panic if the Canucks lose their lead of the NW division. Home ice in the 1st round is all I ask for.
The question I have is will this performance lull get someone traded? Don’t trade Luongo though, the team ( I ) needs his sense of humour.
Lets all remember that there were days when a .500 performing Canucks team was great. Two presidents trophies are probably a greatness that is now in the rear view mirror. The Canucks are still great, but maintaining that is not something teams can do in this league. You don’t need to win the regular season to win the cup, and teams rarely do both in the same year.
Cathylu
March 8, 2013From your lips to the hockey gods’ ears.
EllynBleu
March 8, 2013Thank you, thank you, thank you for not doing the ” Chicken Little” dance, as so many fans tend to do when the Team loses. At least you have looked at the situation from all angles, listing pros and cons. After reading your blog, I feel better, and I whole-heartedly agree with your comment,
” Beating the Blue Jackets is never a foregone conclusion, because this is the NHL and any team can beat any team on any given night.”
Too many fans put way too much emphasism on standings especially in the so-called bottom half. Those players wouldn’t be in the NHL if they weren’t skilled. Chill, people. There are still many more games to be played.
best behaviour
March 8, 2013Hey, further to funny captions (re: the Robert Luongo trade to Vancouver from last month), Canucks’ own website (photo 10 oof 20 from the Columbus game pics) is showing “Goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky #72 of the Columbus Blue Jackets makes a save against Cory Schneider #35 of the Vancouver Canucks during the second period on March 7, 2013 at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio.”
Say what you will about Luongo, that Schneider is versatile! (It’s actually a photo of Raymond.)
MB13
March 8, 2013If that was a newspaper based in the US, Harrison would mock their lack of hockey knowledge.
D'Arcy Mackenzie
March 8, 2013I say panic – in patt because it gives the team a slight motivational edge (“people counted us out”). Here are some objective facts – they got lots of points early on, includnig playing and winning witin the division. This was a time when some teams were floundering, but who have recentlybeen playing a lot better – Washington Capitals being one, the Red Wings, adn teh Wikd – see tsecond point below, Remember when Kassian was scoring – early in the year before the other teams were playing better. A second observation is that the WIld added key new players and didn’t start well – but are now playing better. Third, if Canucks can’t beat Columbus, how are they going to do against the Wild? Fourth, the time for tradind Luongo may have passed, and the goalies are not stealing games. This could change. Firfth – David Booth is not scoring. Some might say he is playing well but just being unlucky, to which I would respond, there is no norm for him to revert to (based on last year’s play). Fifth – Kesler is not coming back until mid April when the season may be almost lost. On the flip side, Gille might make a brilliant trade, Booth might start scoring, and Kassian scoring again. ALso I might be overestimating the Wild. And remember, in the 1995 shortended season, the Devils (the eventual cup champion) started poorly and struggled to make the playoffs. Lets just hope the Canucks dont have to play such a style of hockey to repeat that feat.
Nee
March 8, 2013Here’s the thing.
The logical part of me would say: no point panicking when we’re only halfway through the season. They can turn it around. And if recent history is any indication, they will turn it around.
The illogical, pessimistic part of me says: so what? Recent history, and franchise history, also tells me that even if they pull out of this funk the end result is the same.
Which is why I appreciate this blog, for it”s humour and calm writing. Helps me hold off the pessimistic part of me, most days.
Paul
March 8, 2013Coldplay’s ‘Don’t Panic’ was named in tribute to the HGTTU phrase. They and Radiohead are big fans (see Paranoid Android, 42…). And yes, Parachutes is their best work, nothing against newer stuff, but it’s a solid album form front to back!
naturalmystic
March 8, 2013Time to panic. Casucks are going to be sent home after first round of the playoffs. Good luck ever winning another President’s trophy with California teams in the new division. Casucks will finish no better than third in the new division. Reality check – Casucks have propped up their point totals because of their current division partners. Take the Oilers and Flames out of the mix and the Canucks are second tier. The only thing better than the Casucks being swept in the first round is seeing one of the Sedin sisters being driven head first into the boards.
betty
March 8, 2013Without Fail, there is ALWAYS at least ONE of YOU. I appreciate people like you, really I do. Just when I think Humans have Made Progress in their Evolution as reasoning Beings , I am brought back to the stark reality that I should NEVER get optimistic when I drink. Thank you kind Person, tho obviously totally screwed up as you are. I can ALWAYS count on one of YOU, to raise your Head out of the Toilet, for a moment ,to make a shit comment,Never change. You keep me single.
baldrick
March 8, 2013I’ve read this blog for a few years now, but never commented. I can’t, however, let this moronic troll post pass without expressing incredulity – I know that’s a big word fella, but take it slowly and break it down syllable by syllable – that someone could actually toss out the old Sedin-sisters chestnut. And further, wish a concussion or worse upon them.
Now, I realize trolls are simply meant to stir it up and I should ignore this mouth-breather and let him get on with his minimum-wage existence, but sometimes you just have to cross the bridge, don’t you?
If you knew anything at all about hockey, or maybe played the game with skill, you’d understand that the Sedins are among the finest players of their generation, and display more toughness than you give them credit for. I, for one, am grateful that I’ve been able to watch their careers in a Canucks uniform with immense pleasure, the occasional dull barb limply tossed by the likes of you notwithstanding.
Now, don’t you have a deep-fryer to clean out or something?
Brent
March 8, 2013Probably best to not feed the troll, but sometimes ya gotta do what ya gotta do. I know I have on occasion. Surprized Mr.mystic has not been deleted yet, I suspect that this is one of the “banned” individuals. Or maybe he is a new KID on the block.
Daniel Wagner
March 8, 2013He’s been around, but he hasn’t been abusive, so he hasn’t been banned. He’s free to express his idiotic and misogynistic opinion, though wishing injury on a player in such a way is borderline.
Brent
March 8, 2013I like the way you guys handle this site.
Nee
March 8, 2013And we can always just downvote him into oblivion.
It’s the symbolilc gestures that count. : )
Mel
March 8, 2013The comments with many downvotes need to disappear, like on Reddit. Then it’s more than symbolic, it’s satisfyingly vengeful.
EllynBleu
March 8, 2013“seeing one of the Sedin sisters being driven head first into the boards.”
What a moronic comment! What kind of a person would wish such an injury on any player? Remember naturalmystic: what goes around comes around.
Martie
March 8, 2013When the biggest insult you can think of to name call a man, is to call him a woman it’s time for a mental shake-up. I hope your mother, sister, wife, girlfriend or daughter realise just how inferior to you, you believe they are. If you are female, you definitely have self worth issues.
J21 (@Jyrki21)
March 8, 2013Yeah, citing the record as though shootout losses are real results is stupid. (I can’t believe people who are smart in other walks of life do this sincerely, either.) Shootout wins likewise need to be factored out. I don’t know what the record looks like after that, but I suspect it’s an OK number of wins, an OK number of losses, and a lot of ties.
This still means the Canucks are somewhat middling, though — which actually looks appropriate to me given their roster, especially without Kesler. It’s not 2010-11 any more. I don’t really expect this team to be mopping the floor with anyone. Those guys on HFBoards who think they are manly and “competitive” for DEMANDING BETTER or ONLY WANTING A CUP seem to forget that it’s not just the Canucks’ morale or motivation who will, statistically speaking, almost certainly stop them from doing that. It’s all those other teams who are as good as or better than them — and this isn’t their “fault” any more than it’s my fault that there are richer people than me in the world.
That said, the stat that Daniel has seven power play shots is absolutely maddening. There’s no way that should be possible.
BakerGeorgeT
March 8, 2013I don’t think it matters that other team’s wan to do well. That’s none of the fan’s concern. Being understanding is not a hockey fan’s concern. Wanting your team to win, and by an absurd amount, is all we ask for. Or at least the team could score more than one goal against Columbus.
Nick
March 8, 2013Totally agree … the media spins shoot-out losses as though they were the same as real losses.
They’re really the same as ties.
In 23 games, the Canucks have only 6 regulation losses. They have collected at least a point in the other 17 games.
But the story sounds more dramatic (and presumably sells more papers) when reporters can exaggerate poor play by spinning it to emphasize about how many consecutive losses Vancouver has.
And yet the Canucks collected in points in a lot of those games.
The media are the first to panic.
They’re also the first to predict great success, cup parades, individual trophies, etc.; on the basis of a tiny sample of games.
You certainly wouldn’t want anyone with the media over-reaction mentality handling your investments.
Sell, sell, sell … get rid of that stock, and don’t waste a minute … it’s the worst!
No wait … buy, buy, buy … I didn’t mean that about the stock and should have said it’s the best!
Sell, sell, sell …
The media are the first to panic.
uke
March 9, 2013Have you factored in the fact they only have 3 regulation wins
uke
March 9, 2013sorry 6
Kenji
March 8, 2013This is a team with confidence problems and a lack of energy. I think that the waiting for the trade of Luongo is starting to wear them down as everyone wonders who is going with him. The team needs to acquire some dynamic offense, and hopefully find some practice time to make it happen!
Chris the Curmudgeon
March 8, 2013Your interpretation of the standings is a little bit disingenuous itself Harrison. If we’re going to factor out shootouts, it has to be both ways. The Canucks have 8 regulation wins and an OT win, 6 outright losses and an OT loss, and 7 shootouts. If you want to take out the stupid charity points and look at the standings pre-1999 style (in other words, assess their wins, losses and ties based on normal hockey and not a silly skills competition), the Canucks would be 9-7-7, in other words, a winning team on balance but decidedly under the umbrella of the average. Consider that outside of their moribund division, they are 4-6-5 by the same measure. That’s right, 4 outright victories in 15 games outside their division. I invite you to tell me you think that’s a reasonable mark for a team that fancies itself a contender.
However, I think your point about the power play is well put. They must work it to Daniel more, and if they’re going to bring in Garrison’s slap shot why not set him up to take it more often too?
Harrison Mooney
March 8, 2013I hear you. The main point I was making about the standings is that reading them entirely positively or entirely negatively is disingenuous, but however you read the, they’re in third.
Lenny
March 8, 2013Mostly harmless….
Amor de Cosmos
March 8, 2013Panic is not healthy — it raises blood-pressure to unhealthy levels and causes sleepless nights.
This season is absurd anyway — did you see the way H & D were yukking it up on the bench last night? “Tied with the worst team in the league you say? ‘Tis to giggle.” — they’re not panicking why should we?
GMMG doesn’t look panic-stricken either. Until he does I’m maintaining my sangfroid.
Brent
March 8, 2013Should not the caption for the top photo be
“Is this a dagger which I see before me?”
Panic? Now is not the time to panic. If defensive miscues continue, the power play continues to underwhelm, Booth still has not scored, Luongo and Schneider continue to play only average, Bieksa and Kesler stay injured, Raymond continues to play center and increases his falling down frequency, and Kassian still hasn’t scored another goal while Cody keeps making the highlight reels, THEN it is time to panic!
betty
March 8, 2013Loved this article ! Very well done . Great explanation, and even I , so Hockey illiterate, could “GET IT”. As a Rabid fan of this Great Hockey Team, I sometimes attack any and all that DARE to chirp. I can be excused because, hey, the Team needs people like me that Love them unconditionally. yes I do.
Carlo
March 8, 2013I am unfortunately panicking.
I am a big Luongo fan but I’m willing to let him go for more dynamic skaters. We need more offense and we’re not getting any of it.
Nee
March 8, 2013Up-vote for your honesty.
BedBeats
March 8, 2013Suprised there wasnt a PANIC! “AV has lost his players, fire him! Lindy Ruff, rabble-rabble.”
I dread going to CDC today.
Injuries
March 8, 2013Every team has injuries, but having both Bieksa/Kesler out, well, that is a lot of skill and edge missing from the Canuck’s line-up… if they can stay in playoff contention without them in terms of wins/losses, while further developing players in the line-up, that is fine…
B
March 8, 2013Sure, i agree, don’t panic…but we should also be realistic and admit that this team will not win the Stanley Cup without a true scorer (Kesler is not a true scorer).
bluemoonjones
March 8, 2013Just. Not. Worried.
They’ve been playing pretty well. Need to get more pucks in the net is all, and that’s gonna happen.
Just get to the playoffs healthy and as the 3 seed. Then watch Lu and Schneids alternate giving goaltending clinics all the way to the Cup.
Strange, I know, but I just feel that this is the year.
Smokey
March 8, 2013Who are we kidding, Canucks fans have been panicking since well before this season even started.
Nick
March 9, 2013Canucks with Ballard & Tanev playing together, solid minutes … smokin’ hot.
Canucks since AV started to pull Ballard in and out of the lineup, and throw him in with every other D … flat, flat, flat.
AV’s always twitching and jonesing to scramble lines and pairings but sometimes, when you’re winning left and right, the smarter coaches know that you should just leave things alone.
Tom 1040
March 9, 2013Why panic?
The problem with this team resides in the philosophy of the owner, the ability of the GM, and the credibility of AV continuing as coach.
I think shortly after last year’s loss to LA would have been a good time to blow-up the team, including moving Kesler (valuable asset), Luongo or Schneider, and perhaps even Burrows.
Drastic yes, but (in this scenario) Canucks might still have won the very weak NW Div. and hence still make the playoffs, which is ownership’s only stated yearly goal (see comments post Dave Nonis termination).
What’s more, they are apparently going to have to rely on trades to pick up some young prospects given that Gillis and crew cannot seem to ‘guess right’ too often.
Ladies and gentlemen, the window has closed.
So, why panic? It’s already too late.
Nick
March 10, 2013I agree with some of your take on this … but I believe the window is still open, and will be for a couple more years if they can retain the guys on the 2nd line (and get some luck avoiding injuries)
no question though … AV is not Scotty Bowman
and Gillis, while he has done an admirable job of retaining the core players, is not Sam Pollock
he’s struggled to draft and acquire young players for the future … which doesn’t bode well for the team a few years from now
a year or two out the playoffs and a farm system that is still as thin as it is now, and both GM and coach will be probably be replaced with guys who are better team re-builders
I think it’s fair to say that’s not a Gillis strength
Tom 1040
March 10, 2013Hey Nick,
Thanks for not mocking my opinion.
I may be wrong but I think many people look at the window starting from 2011.
In my view, the window started in 2009, opened a little more, then opened very wide, then dramatically shut and is now closed.
Why? Well, I wonder:
What do they need?
Who can they trade?
Who can they get?
How much cap space do they have?
What young players are ready to be promoted?
The future does not seem overly bright, but perhaps nor do I.
In closing, just to highlight our difference of opinion: Who do you envision as the 2nd line besides Kesler?
Part of the problem, for me, is that the 2nd line is not overly impressive, whoever you put on it.
Daniel Wagner
March 10, 2013Yes, one year removed from going to game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final is the perfect time to blow up the team. Definitely a good idea to blow up the team immediately after losing to the eventual Cup winner. You’re absolutely right.
Tom 1040
March 10, 2013Thanks, Danny.
What else have I been right about?
You can start with Luongo…
Harrison Mooney
March 10, 2013#Tom1040ForCoachAndGM
Tom 1040
March 10, 2013Thanks for the love, Harry, but the armchair is too comfy.
Honoured that my l’il ole’ comment would draw such a well-crafted response.
Anything in particular you disagree with?
Ahhh, nevermind…don’t want to drag you from pre-frontal use.
obituary mambo
March 10, 2013Don’t panic: with yesterday’s defeat of Detroit, Columbus is now 3-0-1 against the Wings this season. Sometimes the more skilled team loses. Them’s the breaks, frustrating as they can be.
bob
March 10, 2013As the team stands, they are a top tier team with all hands on deck, but the problem with the system this team plays under they are always a #2/3/17/22/23/33 from having the system thrown out of whack, as evidenced the past two playoffs
The good news is that I suspect this will not be the team that we are going to the playoffs with…goalie trade notwithstanding, with all the injuries we’ve racked up we have tons of cap space to go after some big time rentals at the trade deadline.
So no, I’m not panicking…yet
Dougster
March 10, 2013Ok. After the Wild game, I am beginning to panic…. “Something must be done!” But, what? Our team needs some kind of jolt, and I don’t mean an energy drink…
steveB
March 10, 2013gah, a game that should mean something against the Wild and they’re down 1-zip in the first 20-odd seconds?
2-0 by the end of the First and every step forward is immediately followed by 2 steps back.
Power Play 0-fer, PK breaks down.
How many good games have they played since they put Manny out to pasture?
TEAM 1040 is going to be ghastly tomorrow, hope you have an IWTG to clear some of the gloom ‘n’ doom away.
Naturalmystic
March 10, 2013Lol. Casucks get rolled again. The players have stopped responding to Vigneault, time to send him down the road kicking rocks. I say it everytime, these guys are not as good as you believe they are. This is a second tier team that is going nowhere in the playoffs. How does it feel to know that this team will never win a Stanley Cup. The Leafs will win before the Casucks. Very little talent coming down the pipe with regards to draft picks and the farm team. Certainly no one to replace the sisters when they get old. A couple more years in the middle of the pack and then it’s a fight to make the playoffs. This is the way things go in sports. The Casucks had their chance to win it all a couple of times with this roster but choked when it mattered. Sunrise, sunset.